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Optimism is dangerous Israelis, and Jews more
generally, are better served by healthy pessimism Historical and Investigative Research
- 29 December 2011 More than ever, Israelis, and
Jews more generally, should beware of “friends” who tell them not to worry,
that everything is going to be fine. Everything will not be fine. However it
happens, things are going to get ugly. The only question is whether Israelis,
and Jews more generally, will wake up in time and prevail. ___________________________________________________________ At HIR we have been arguing
with our usual vehemence that things are not going well for Israel. In
particular, we have warned that the “Arab Spring” bodes nothing but great trouble: ► Here comes the Muslim Brotherhood And yet I must have missed
something because yesterday Conrad Black published an opinion editorial in
the New York Sun titled: “Israel’s Prospects Have Never Been
Brighter, As Arab Spring Fades Into Winter of Discontent.”[1] This was immediately republished on Israpundit to cheery acclaim. I am very busy, but this made me
angry. Irrational
optimism got many Jews killed in the Holocaust. It is the reason so many got
on the trains. And yet it is just as easy as it ever was to sell irrational
optimism to the Jews: they all want it. Denial of reality is the Jewish way
of finding psychological solace. It is understandable. It is also deadly. I
disagree strongly with Conrad Black, and I don’t believe he is doing the
Jewish people any favors. Let us examine what he writes and see if we can
spot any errors of logic or leaps to ‘hopeful’ conclusions from zero
evidence. Conrad Black
writes: “...I think that Israel’s prospects
have never been brighter... The Islamists may be gaining ground...” Interesting
juxtaposition. Picture Frodo and Sam, the heroes of Tolkien’s The Lord of the Rings, perched atop the mountains
overlooking the domains of Dark Lord Sauron. Can
you imagine Frodo’s expression if he heard his trusty companion Sam exclaim:
“Look, Mr. Frodo! Middle Earth has never been in better shape: the dark
shadow of Mordor is spreading!” It probably
bears some resemblance to the face I made when I read Black. Now that the
Islamists—who announce in public that they mean to exterminate the Israeli
Jews—are “gaining ground,” Black would have us believe that “Israel’s
prospects have never been brighter.” Um... Really?
Never? Not after the
Israel victory in the War of Independence? Not after the Israeli victory in
the Six Day War? Not before the Israeli defeat of the Oslo Process brought the
PLO/Fatah into the Jewish State and gave it control over the Arab population
in Judea, Samaria, and Gaza? Not before Gaza was turned over to PLO/Fatah so
that PLO/Fatah could give it to the Hamas Islamists so they could turn it
into a rocket base? Is it really now—now
that the anti-Semitic genocidal Islamists are taking over everywhere in the
Middle East—that Israel’s prospects are the brightest? Ah, but I
truncated Black’s text with an ellipsis (…). Perhaps that was unfair. So let
us restore the truncated text: “...I think that Israel’s prospects
have never been brighter. The Arab powers are in complete disarray within and
among each other. The Islamists may be gaining ground...” It really
doesn’t improve. According to Black, the reason that “Israel’s prospects have
never been brighter” is that “the Arab
powers are in complete disarray...” But (naturally) the reason the “Arab
powers are in... disarray” is that “the Islamists are gaining ground.” This
is a transition period. The disarray will end when the Islamists are
completely in control. (This will happen soon.) The author
continues: “The Islamists may be gaining ground
but all indications are that the Arab masses are finally becoming more
skeptical about the endless recourse to the red herring of Israel by their
leaders to distract them from the despotism and misrule that has been imposed
upon them by theocracies and secular states alike throughout the
post-colonial era.” Black claims
that “all indications” are that the “Arab masses” are becoming enlightened
and therefore also “more skeptical” of the Islamist focus on Israel. Uh huh.
But the Islamists of the Muslim Brotherhood, the ones taking over everywhere,
are completely focused on “the red herring of Israel.” And “the Islamists
[are] gaining ground” because they are effectively mobilizing the widespread
support they have been building with the “Arab masses.” So the “Arab masses”
are not “becoming more skeptical” of the Islamist focus on Israel, but all to
the contrary. Then he
writes: “Even if the Islamists shoulder aside
the military in Egypt, only the military could return to a war policy against
Israel and the Egyptian army won’t do it. The hotheads can burn the Israeli
flag in Tahrir Square in Cairo and even sack the
Israeli embassy as they started to do last month, but no one is taking Egypt
back to war with Israel.” The author
appears to misperceive how the world works. If the Islamists “shoulder aside
the military in Egypt” then the Egyptian army will become an Islamist army.
Perhaps not overnight, but give it a fortnight. “No one is taking Egypt back
to war with Israel”? Really? Nobody? How about the Islamists who “burn the
Israeli Flag in Tahrir Square in Cairo and even
sack the Israeli embassy,” the same ones who will soon “shoulder aside the
military in Egypt”? Then: “President Assad of Syria cannot
survive as the absolute ruler of that country... There are steady defections
from the Syrian army [and] pressures from the Arab league, which is always
ineffectual but is something of a weather vane...” It is probably
true that Assad will not survive; he will be replaced by Islamists of the
Muslim Brotherhood. That is who the defectors from the Syrian army are
defecting to (by the way). The author sees a “weather vane” in the Arab
League pressure on Assad. Perhaps. Right before the Arab League’s 1948 war
against Israel, Azzam Pasha, Secretary General of
the Arab League, announced: “This will be a war of extermination and a
momentous massacre which will be spoken of like the Mongolian massacres and the
Crusades.”[1a] Good enough to
establish the direction of the “weather”? Next: “The enfeeblement of Syria will weaken
Hezbollah and Hamas, and fray the supply line from Iran, and reduce pressure
on Israel.” Black seems
very confident that this will be the outcome. Iranian leaders, however, seem
to think otherwise. On 3 October, Lebanon’s Daily Star reported the following: “ ‘The power of the U.S.
administration is being curtailed and the power of Islamists is growing and
flourishing,’ said Abdolhosein Allahkaram,
the founder and former leader of Ansar-e Hezbollah
and a retired brigadier general of the Revolutionary Guards, echoing views
that have been expressed by Iran’s senior religious leaders.”[2] More recently,
on 10 December, World Net Daily
reported: “Iranian supreme leader Ayatollah Seyyed Ali Khamenei recently urged more than 2.5 million
Muslims on a pilgrimage in Saudi Arabia to form ‘an international Islamic
power bloc.’ The Ayatollah Khamenei told the listeners the Arab Spring was
guided by Islam and said Muslims worldwide should rally to the Islamic cause.”[3] Perhaps Black
should be less sanguine about how the so-called “Arab Spring” will disrupt
Iranian supply lines to Hezbollah. Black also
says: “Except perhaps for the demented
genocidal ravings from Tehran, which may have to await a new administration
in Washington to receive the abatement it requires, the rest of Muslim sabre-rattling against Israel is just histrionics.” The “demented
genocidal ravings from Tehran” have received nothing but material support
from Washington administrations across a period of over 30 years, as we have
documented.[4] The next administration will not
defend Israel from Tehran but all to the contrary, consistent with this
history. Conrad Black: “Turkey won’t send anymore [sic] ships
to Palestine.” A prophecy
based on what evidence? The Mavi Marmara worked
wonders for anti-Israel forces; they would be fools not to repeat it. And
they are not fools. And guess what
we are now finding out? Just the other day, the Spanish daily ABC published an article with the title:
“Libyan Islamists go to Syria to ‘help’ the revolution.”[5] The article reports ABC’s interview of Mehdi al Harati in Syria. The Spanish journalist was a bit
surprised to find Harati there because Harati “is the former commander of the Tripoli Brigade,
which played a fundamental role in the taking of the [Libyan] capital and the
fall of Qaddafi.” So what was he doing
in Syria? He was there to assist the Syrian “revolution,” al Harati stated. But I am
straining your patience. What does any of this have to do, you ask, with
Turkey again sending terrorists aboard flotillas—such as the one led by the Mavi Marmara—to provoke incidents with the Israelis who
have rightfully blockaded Gaza? Glad you asked. ABC further explains about Harati: “There is no doubt that Harati is a man of action. This character leaped to
prominence after his participation in the Gaza Flotilla in the spring of
2010. ‘I was wounded in the assault on the Mavi
Marmara and I spent 9 days in a Tel Aviv jail,’ he tells us.” So, we have
that an Islamist leader of the Gaza Flotilla is also the man responsible for
the taking of Tripoli, and is now involved in the Syrian insurrection. So I
suppose this means that “Turkey won’t send anymore [sic] ships to Palestine,”
because... why? Because it would be too easy (and therefore boring?) now that the Islamists whom
Turkey sent in those ships are taking power everywhere in the Middle East? About Mehdi al
Harati, ABC
further explains: “In February, Harati,
who lives in Dublin and has an Irish passport, bid farewell to his wife and
son, together with other Libyans exiled in Ireland, and went to Libya. There
he created the Tripoli Brigade, a group of elite fighters, trained by Qatari
advisors, who fought in the final battle for the capital.” Isn’t that
interesting? What was Irish citizen
Harati doing before he left Ireland? It seems to me
he had to be training for warfare, otherwise it is inexplicable that he was
qualified to create and lead a “group of elite fighters.” So what is going on
in Ireland? Doesn’t this suggest that Mehdi al Harati
is protected and sponsored by the powers that be? Where do his
resources come from? The Spanish daily explains: “Not too long ago, Harati
was implicated in a strange episode when, according to his own story, a band
of thieves broke into his home, taking a great store of jewelry and 200,000
pound sterling (about 238,000 euros). Harati told
the Police that a great quantity of money had been given to him by a CIA
agent to finance his group’s struggle against Qaddafi. The fighter left
200,000 pounds for his wife, in case something happened to him, and he took
the rest to Libya.” How to interpret this? First of all, Harati obviously has a very loose tongue. He talks to everybody. The surprised ABC reporters commented on this: “The Libyans didn’t try to hide their identities.” Perhaps Harati is a bit of an ‘innocent,’ if you catch my drift: he is at the center of things, he feels important, he likes to boast, so he wags his tongue in all directions. But why would he tell the Irish police that the money stolen from him was CIA money to fight the Islamist uprising against Qaddafi? Under what conditions would it make sense for him to do that? Wouldn’t he do this only if he believed himself to be completely protected by the powers that be, powers to whom the explanation of his CIA connection is a way of staying protected? Because in Libya, you see, Harati was second-in-command to Abdul Hakim Belhadj, “the historical leader of the Libyan Islamic Fighting Group (LIFG), the Libyan affiliate of al-Qaeda,”[6] and Belhadj has been linked to the famous Madrid bombings.[7]
Now, what is
all this consistent with? It is consistent with US Intelligence assisting the
Islamist takeover of the Middle East and North Africa, so as to prepare the ground
for the destruction of Israel, as we have been arguing for years. What? Did I
say that? Never mind. “Israel’s prospects have never been brighter.”
____________________________________________________________ Footnotes
and Further Reading [1] “Israel’s Prospects Have Never
Been Brighter, As Arab Spring Fades Into Winter of Discontent”; By CONRAD
BLACK; Special to the Sun; December 28, 2011 [1a] Howard M Sachar,
A History of Israel (New York: Knopf, 1979)p. 333 [2] “Iranians divided over effects of
Arab Spring”; The Daily Star (Lebanon); October 03, 2011 02:23 AM; By Kristin
Dailey; [3] “FAITH UNDER FIRE: Arab Spring begins
weeding out Christians: Proposed 'international Islamic power bloc' can't
afford dissent”; World Net Daily; December 10, 201, 12:25 am Eastern; by
Michael Carl [4] “Will the US attack Iran?: An
alternative hypothesis”; Historical and Investigative Research - 23 Feb 2006;
by Francisco Gil-White [5]
“Islamistas libios se desplazan a Siria para «ayudar» a la revolución: ABC
entrevista a un grupo de libios vinculados con
el ex yihadista Belhadj
que han viajado a Siria para «evaluar» los medios de apoyo a la insurgencia”;
DANIEL IRIARTE / ENVIADO ESPECIAL A
YEBEL ZAWI (SIRIA); 12 December, 2011. [6] “Libyan Rebel Commander: I Was on the
Mavi Marmara”; National Review; By John Rosenthal;
December 28, 2011 12:37 P.M. [7] “El
comandante rebelde Belhadj admite que contactó con los
cabecillas del 11-M: Afirma que «El Tunecino» le llamó semanas antes de los
atentados, aunque asegura que no respondió porque el número le pareció
«extraño»”; MIKEL AYESTARAN / ENVIADO ESPECIAL A TRÍPOLI; 10 September, 2011 |
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